Report: August 4, 2023.
On July 12, 2023, the Senate Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, the Director of the Congressional Budget Office, testified about Social Security’s finances. After the hearing, Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse, Ranking Member Chuck Grassley, and Senator Ron Wyden submitted questions for the record. This document provides CBO’s answers.
Full Text of Document Providing CBO’s Answers to questions submitted.
August 4, 2023.
As ordered Reported by the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability on July 12, 2023.
Summary:
Originally posted by John McClellan et. al. on July 25, 2023.
As part of the legislative process, the Congressional Budget Office* supplies the Congress with cost estimates for legislation, economic and budget projections, and other economic assessments. Information from the research community is an important element of CBO’s analyses. This is the seventh in a series of blog posts discussing research that would enhance the quality of the information that CBO uses in its work. (Earlier posts in the series discussed the need for new research in the areas of energy and the environment, finance, health, labor, macroeconomics, and national security.) Please send comments to communications@cbo.gov. Since this CBO blog post is believed to contain information of general interest it is being reproduced here, in full, as an information service.
CBO regularly provides the Congress with information about the ways that the government’s tax and transfer system affects the distribution of household income (for example, CBO 2022). That analysis is built on the models and data underlying the agency’s baseline projections of revenues and spending (CBO 2023). CBO is on the lookout for new research that would enhance its analysis of taxes and transfers, including research related to distributional analysis and projections of revenues from business income. The agency is currently working on those topics, and there are significant gaps in the relevant research literature.
Original Posting by David Mosher et.al. on July 24, 2023*
As part of the legislative process, the Congressional Budget Office supplies the Congress with cost estimates for legislation, economic and budget projections, and other economic assessments. Information from the research community is an important element of CBO’s analyses. This is the sixth in a series of blog posts discussing research that would enhance the quality of the information that CBO uses in its work. (Earlier posts in the series discussed the need for new research in the areas of energy and the environment, finance, health, labor, and macroeconomics.) Please send comments to communications@cbo.gov.
The Department of Defense (DoD) received about $850 billion in funding in 2023. With those funds, DoD hires personnel (members of the military and civilian employees) and purchases a variety of goods and services from private-sector companies. Some of the purchased goods, such as aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and nuclear submarines, are highly complex weapon systems. CBO is on the lookout for new research on various topics related to DoD’s personnel and weapon systems, including the implications of the military’s use of in-kind compensation and the causes of, and future trends in, sector-specific inflation. CBO is currently working on those topics, and there are significant gaps in the relevant research literature.
Report, July 14, 2023
CBO estimates that plans for U.S. nuclear forces, as described in the fiscal year 2023 budget and supporting documents, would cost $756 billion over the 2023–2032 period, $122 billion more than CBO’s 2021 estimate for the 2021–2030 period.
Summary:
Cyber risk is one of the great concerns sitting at the top of any government, as hacker attacks and other security breaches have the potential to jeopardize the global economy and other aspects of everyday life. Wide reporting indicates the proliferation of cyber attacks worldwide at a substantial and increasing rate, thereby unleashing severe damage to companies, governments and individuals worldwide. This proliferation of widespread attacks is creating an increasingly urgent need for greater cybersecurity for those in all sectors utilizing online networks. Users include governments, corporations, various other organizations and individuals who stand to benefit from the greater convenience, efficiencies, and sometimes cost benefits made available through online use.
Cyber criminals and others in the business of victimizing online users also benefit. While some may be primarily interested in creating mischief, which can itself prove harmful, professional cybercriminals are usually looking for much more. Usually, the basis of their primary motives comes down to either money or power. For purposes of classification, their motives are typically grouped into one or more of the following three categories:
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies about the agency’s projections of Social Security’s finances before the Senate Budget Committee.
Established in 1974, The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. It is charged with providing members of Congress objective analysis of budgeting and economic issues to support the congressional budget process. Each year, CBO economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This posting includes a summary of Director Swagel’s testimony, a link to the full text of the testimony, and a list of publications that relate to the testimony.
Summary:
On June 29,2023, the Supreme Court delivered its decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College. The Court held that Harvard College’s admissions system does not comply with the principles of the equal protection clause embodied in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. The decision, by a vote of 6–2, reversed the lower court ruling. In writing the majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts held that affirmative action in college admissions is unconstitutional. The Court did not decide whether race-based affirmative action can continue in U.S. military academies,[9] which the solicitor general urged the Court to continue to allow in the government’s amicus brief. The the court also did not rule out race entirely in admission programs, adding, “nothing prohibits universities from considering an applicant’s discussion of how race affected the applicant’s life, so long as that discussion is concretely tied to a quality of character or unique ability that the particular applicant can contribute to the university.”
REMARKS AND STATEMENTS:
It was only a short time after the Supreme Court announced that it had delivered its decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College that emails and other media containing messages reacting to the decision started appearing. Thinking that readers of this blog might be interested in becoming aware of, and reading, some of these messages, we started our own searching on the web. Some of our searches were general, some more specific. As the search results mounted up into the hundreds, it became clear that time and space made it impossible to tabulate all, or even most, of our search results on this blog. We have therefore resorted to presenting you a relatively short, manageable list that hopefully you will find helpful and enlightening.
In an earlier posting, CBO Projections: The 2023 Budget, we provided Congressional Budget Office (CBO) documents which discuss, from a budgetary perspective, their analysis and projections of what the federal budget and economy would look like over the next 20 years, if current laws generally remain unchanged. In this posting we focus primarily on material provided by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) to provide more general dimension to this discussion. The Budget and Accounting Act of 1921 formed the then named General Accounting Office to investigate all matters related to the use of public funds. The Act also required GAO to report its findings to Congress and recommend ways to increase economy and efficiency in government spending. It is an independent, non-partisan agency that works for Congress.
Both the GAO and the CBO are partners in supporting Congress in its effort to ensure accountability to the American people. While both can be involved in the development and analysis of federal and defense budgets, sometimes collaborating in these initiatives, the GAO is also responsible for monitoring expenditures, including excessive spending, and issuing legal decisions on matters such as those related to disputes involving the awarding of government contracts, and has the power to investigate activities of the executive branch, although its enforcement powers are considered negligible.
Regarding The State of the Economy of the United States: As Viewed by GAO and CBO, there are indications from the various federal agencies reporting on these matters that over the long term the nation’s fiscal health may be in peril if current fiscal policies remain unchanged..
Report June 28, 2023:
Introduction:
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO’s projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
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