The Documents Corner

July 22, 2023

CBO Blog Posting: A Call for New Research in the Area of Macroeconomics

Original posting by Richard DeKaser on the CBO Blog, July 21,2023.*

As part of the legislative process, the Congressional Budget Office supplies the Congress with cost estimates for legislation, economic and budget projections, and other economic assessments. Information from the research community is an important element of CBO’s analyses. This is the fifth in a series of blog posts discussing research that would enhance the quality of the information that CBO uses in its work. (Earlier posts in the series discussed the need for new research in the areas of energy and the environment, finance, health, and labor. Please send comments to communications@cbo.gov.

CBO regularly prepares forecasts of key economic variables, including output, income, employment, inflation, and interest rates. The agency also evaluates the macroeconomic effects of proposed or enacted legislation. CBO is on the lookout for new research on various topics in the area of macroeconomics, including trends in productivity growth and interest rates on Treasury securities, as well as the effects of fiscal policy on a broad range of economic variables. The agency is currently working on those topics, and there are significant gaps in the relevant research literature.

July 15, 2023

The Urgency for Greater Cybersecurity

by David Badertscher

Cyber risk is one of the great concerns sitting at the top of any government, as hacker attacks and other security breaches have the potential to jeopardize the global economy and other aspects of everyday life. Wide reporting indicates the proliferation of cyber attacks worldwide at a substantial and increasing rate, thereby unleashing severe damage to companies, governments and individuals worldwide. This proliferation of widespread attacks is creating an increasingly urgent need for greater cybersecurity for those in all sectors utilizing online networks. Users include governments, corporations, various other organizations and individuals who stand to benefit from the greater convenience, efficiencies, and sometimes cost benefits made available through online use.

Cyber criminals and others in the business of victimizing online users also benefit. While some may be primarily interested in creating mischief, which can itself prove harmful, professional cybercriminals are usually looking for much more. Usually, the basis of their primary motives comes down to either money or power. For purposes of classification, their motives are typically grouped into one or more of the following three categories:

Denial of Service. The motive for this type of attack is usually revenge. Some attackers may launch DDoS attacks as retaliation against a person, organization, or business that they perceive has wronged them. Some attackers may similarly target a competing business or organization to disrupt their services and gain an advantage in the market.

July 13, 2023

CBO Director: Testimony on Social Security’s Finances, July 12,2023

by David Badertscher

CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies about the agency’s projections of Social Security’s finances before the Senate Budget Committee.

Established in 1974, The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. It is charged with providing members of Congress objective analysis of budgeting and economic issues to support the congressional budget process. Each year, CBO economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This posting includes a summary of Director Swagel’s testimony, a link to the full text of the testimony, and a list of publications that relate to the testimony.

Summary:

July 7, 2023

SCOTUS: Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v President and Fellows of Harvard College, Remarks and Statements

by David Badertscher

On June 29,2023, the Supreme Court delivered its decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College. The Court held that Harvard College’s admissions system does not comply with the principles of the equal protection clause embodied in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. The decision, by a vote of 6–2, reversed the lower court ruling. In writing the majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts held that affirmative action in college admissions is unconstitutional. The Court did not decide whether race-based affirmative action can continue in U.S. military academies,^[9] which the solicitor general urged the Court to continue to allow in the government’s amicus brief. The the court also did not rule out race entirely in admission programs, adding, “nothing prohibits universities from considering an applicant’s discussion of how race affected the applicant’s life, so long as that discussion is concretely tied to a quality of character or unique ability that the particular applicant can contribute to the university.”

REMARKS AND STATEMENTS:

It was only a short time after the Supreme Court announced that it had delivered its decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College that emails and other media containing messages reacting to the decision started appearing. Thinking that readers of this blog might be interested in becoming aware of, and reading, some of these messages, we started our own searching on the web. Some of our searches were general, some more specific. As the search results mounted up into the hundreds, it became clear that time and space made it impossible to tabulate all, or even most, of our search results on this blog. We have therefore resorted to presenting you a relatively short, manageable list that hopefully you will find helpful and enlightening.

June 29, 2023

CBO Projections: The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook

by David Badertscher

Report June 28, 2023:

Introduction:

The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO’s projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

June 29, 2023

Congressional Budget Office: 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security

by David Badertscher

Established in 1974, The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. It is charged with providing members of Congress objective analysis of budgeting and economic issues to support the congressional budget process. Each year, CBO economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.

For the past several months I have been receiving directly from CBO links to which I now plan to begin posting selectively on this blog in the interest of information sharing. If there appears to be sufficient interest among readers of this blog over a period of time, I plan to continue posting selections I receive from CBO

June 29,2023 – Report:

June 20, 2023

Responding to Errors and Mistakes in ChatGPT and Other Generative AI Systems

by David Badertscher

Since Open AI released ChatGPT for public use on November 30, 2022, its rate of adoption by the public has been explosive and appears to be increasing at a near exponential rate. Within two months after its public release, it had acquired an estimated 100 million users and surpassed one billion page visits by the end of February, 2023 — an increase unprecedented and creating strong incentives for other generative AI systems to join the fray.

In its official announcement of the release to the public of ChatGPT, Open AI stated very clearly that the system would sometimes generate errors of fact and other types of mistakes in a random manner difficult to predict. It also warned potential users of the urgency of checking ChatGPT responses to user queries against other sources for verification. Most other Generative AI systems have issued similar warnings.

The cumulative impact of the public release of ChatGPT, followed by the public release of other generative AI chat systems, is yet to be determined. However, it will be disruptive— at least in the near term — and may require significant changes to the workplace. Some of these changes might very well involve introducing what I would call error management systems to help manage the deluge of items generated by ChatGPT and other systems in a more organized manner.

June 15, 2023

Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Stop Chinese Fentanyl Act of 2023

by David Badertscher

INTRODUCTION:

Established in 1974, The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. It is charged with providing members of Congress non partisan, objective analysis of budgeting and economic issues to support the congressional budget process. Each year, CBO economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.

For the past several months I have been receiving directly from CBO links to which I now plan to begin posting selectively on this blog in the interest of information sharing. If there appears to be sufficient interest among readers of this blog over a period of time, I plan to continue posting selections I receive from CBO.

June 15, 2023

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) : H.R. 1165, Data Privacy Act of 2023

by David Badertscher

Received : June 13, 2023.

Summary:

H.R. 1165 would amend title V of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) to expand and equally apply protections for consumers and customers with respect to the use of data by financial institutions. The bill would redefine the terms consumer and customer and would require financial institutions to provide opportunities for consumers and customers to opt out of having their personal data disclosed to third parties. H.R. 1165 would require financial institutions to notify people about the information they collect and hold and, upon request, delete nonpublic personal information held by the institution. Finally, the bill would direct the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to report to the Congress on whether the GLBA’s data safeguards adequately protect people’s nonpublic personal information.

June 5, 2023

Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Estimated Budgetary Impact of The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023

by David Badertscher

INTRODUCTION:

Established in 1974, The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government. It is charged with providing members of Congress non partisan, objective analysis of budgeting and economic issues to support the congressional budget process. Each year, CBO economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.

For the past several months I have been receiving directly from CBO links to which I now plan to begin posting selectively on this blog in the interest of information sharing. If there appears to be sufficient interest among readers of this blog over a period of time, I plan to continue posting selections I receive from CBO.