Congressional Cost Estimates

March 22, 2025

CBO: Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Alternative Scenarios for the Budget and Interest Rates

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)* analyzed the effects of alternative budget scenarios in which provisions of the 2017 tax act were extended and the average interest rate on federal debt increased.

Summary:

This letter responds to a request for an analysis of projected deficits and debt under alternative scenarios for the budget and interest rates. Specifically, Congressman Schweikert asked how CBO’s baseline projections of deficits and debt—which reflect the scheduled expiration of certain provisions of the 2017 tax act (Public Law 115-97) under current law—would change if all provisions of that act were extended permanently. Congressman Schweikert also asked how the projections would change further if interest rates were higher than expected.

March 14, 2025

CBO Workbook on How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2025-2035

by David Badertscher

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)* has created a workbook to allow users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables relative to the values underlying CBO’s January 2025 projections.

SUMMARY:

This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables—productivity growth, labor force growth, interest rates, and inflation—relative to the values underlying the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent projections. Those projections were published in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035.

February 16, 2025

CBO Explains Common Sources of Uncertainty in Cost Estimates for Legislation

by David Badertscher

Report: February 13, 2025.

Congressional Budget (CBO) cost estimates, which represent the agency’s best assessment of a bill’s budgetary effects, can be subject to uncertainty arising from various sources. CBO describes how it addresses six common sources of uncertainty.

SUMMARY:

February 4, 2025

Congressional Budget Office Request for Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2026

by David Badertscher

February 3, 2025.

Congressional Budget office (CBO) requests appropriations of $75.8 million for fiscal year 2026. The requested amount is an increase of $5.8 million, or 8.2 percent, above the annualized funding (at the 2024 level) under the continuing resolution currently in effect.

Request Summary:

January 14, 2025

U.S. Demographic Outlook 2025-2055: Population Projections

by David Badertscher

In a January 13, 2025 Report, The Demographic Outlook: 2025-2055, Congressional Budget Office projects, the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055, and the average age will also rise. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths will exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for the growth.

REPORT SUMMARY:

“The size of the U.S. population and its composition by age and sex have significant implications for the economy and the federal budget. For example, the number of people ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people who are employed, and the number of people age 65 or older affects the number of Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries.